Provisional tax for the year

I didn't submit a provisional tax return in Aug 2015 because I thought I would be below the threshold but I am actually above the threshold for the 2016 tax year. Should I now submit one at 29 feb 2016 and are these numbers based on actual income and expenses or an estimate for the 2016 tax year

Yes, you should submit by 29 Feb 2016 a 2nd provisional tax return - this should be based on an estimate for 2016 but you should try and be as accurate as possible and ensure you have back-up calculations/support in case SARS requests it.